92, 421–439. Geometry of earthquake source models of the 1797 and 1833 events (Ni: Nias, Ba: Batu Islands, Sib: Sibereut, Sip: Siora, Pag: Pagai Islands, and Eng: Enggano). (F) Mw 9.0 scenario considering uncertainty. The stochastic tsunami simulation is conducted by generating multiple earthquake source models for a given earthquake scenario, which are used as input to run Monte Carlo tsunami simulation. Since 2004, much of the Sunda megathrust between the northern Andaman Islands and Enggano Island, a distance of more than 2,000 km, has ruptured in a series of large subduction zone earthquakes - most rupturing the plate boundary south of Banda Aceh. Pure Appl. It is critically important to capture the most devastating effect that may occur in the target region. “There were 22 buoys, and as of [2016], the last of them were not working due to them breaking down, or from theft or vandalism,” says Sutopo Nugroho, director of information for BNPB. The results of estimated source parameters for the nineteen source models are shown in Table 1 and Figure 4. 119, 5574–5593. Although the single scenario approach is straightforward to communicate with the hazard results with emergency officers and relevant stakeholders, the multiple-scenario approach can produce a greater range of tsunami scenarios and therefore, more informed decisions regarding evacuation and mitigation actions can be made. Subsequently, the main tsunami simulation results using different earthquake source models in Padang areas are discussed. Two major seismic sources are the 1,900-km long Sumatran fault located along the center of Sumatra Island and the Sunda megathrust zone traversing more than 2,000 km along the western coast of Sumatra (Sieh and Natawidjaja, 2000). (2004). This assumption is based on the paleogeodetic study that finds the potential of giant earthquakes is high in the Mentawai segment as the source earthquake region for the 1797 and 1833 events (Chlieh et al., 2008; Sieh et al., 2008). In the stochastic tsunami simulation, the effect of incorporating and neglecting the prediction errors of earthquake source parameters is investigated. Banerjee, P., Nagarajan, B., Burgmann, R., and Pollitz, F. (2007). Up to 15 million random slip models were generated using existing scaling relationships that were based on only seven subduction earthquake events in Sumatra and eventually 1,000 tsunami simulations from those slip models were further performed to assess the tsunami hazard in Mentawai Islands. Moreover, in some circumstances, individuals have motivations that — knowingly or not — are at odds with monitoring efforts. (2016) only estimated the maximum tsunami height along the western coast of Sumatra and assessed the tsunami hazard in Mentawai Islands but excluded a rigorous evaluation in Padang areas. The maximum slip from this event is only a half of the maximum slip from the 1833 earthquake. The Box–Cox parameters corresponds to the lognormal transformation if the λ = 0. In addition, the correlation lengths and Hurst number are used to model the spatial heterogeneity of the slip values. Examination of three practical run-up models for assessing tsunami impact on highly populated areas. Res. 1. Subsequently, a random slip field is generated using a Fourier integral method (Pardo-Iguzquiza and Chica-Olmo, 1993). More than 900 miles of the plate raised up in a jagged line from south to north, creating a massive 60 foot cliff under the ocean floor. “We are trying to develop and integrate local wisdom with technology, so that communities can build the capacity to cope with the disaster themselves,” he says. Moreover, those previous investigations for the Mentawai-Sunda subduction zone adopted the global empirical scaling relationships [e.g., Mai and Beroza (2002), Gallovič and Brokešová (2004), and Aydan (2008)] to generate only either deterministic fault geometry parameters (width and length) or slip distribution parameters without considering the uncertainty and relationships among earthquake source parameters. (2016). The tsunami simulation results for the other scenarios are then discussed to evaluate the tsunami hazard potential in Padang areas. Griffin, J. D., Pranantyo, I. R., Kongko, W., Haunan, A., Robiana, R., Miller, V., et al. Partial rupture of a locked patch of the Sumatra megathrust during the 2007 earthquake sequence. Located among three major plates, namely the Indian-Australian, the Pacific, and the Eurasian, Indonesia archipelago is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. Figure 5. The verified scaling relationships are further used to generate the earthquake source models for tsunami simulation. U.S.A. 103, 19673–19677. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.09.034, McCloskey, J., Nalbant, S. S., and Steacy, S. (2005). And between all of these major plate collisions, just east of Java, a so-called “suture zone” up to 2,000 kilometers wide comprises several smaller plates that move against each other at relatively high speeds. Table 2. In recent years, the Indonesian government, along with other groups like the Earth Observatory of Singapore and the U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, has been introducing technologies to improve hazard forecasting, warning and mitigation. Heterogeneous coupling of the Sumatran megathrust constrained by geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements. Once a realistic stochastic source model is generated, the initial water surface elevation is calculated using Okada (1985) and Tanioka and Satake (1996) formulae which consider the deformation due to both vertical and horizontal displacements of seafloor. Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Res. |, Tsunami Potential of the Mentawawi-Sunda Megathrust Zone, Earthquake Source Parameters for Sumatra Earthquakes, United States Geological Survey (USGS), 2015, http://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/, http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2004/eq_041226/neic_slav_ff.html, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2005_sumatra/sumatra.html, http://www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2007/09/sumatra_seismic.html, http://www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2005/03/smooth/nias.html, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2008_n_sumatra/simeulue.html, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2007_c_sumatra/c-sumatra.html, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/, Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). A spatial random field model to characterize complexity in earthquake slip. By contrast, incorporating the uncertainty of the scaling relationships results in variability of dimensions and slip statistics. For instance, the maximum height from the 90th percentile of the second and third waves for the Mw 9.0 scenario without considering the uncertainty is ~5 m, while it is ~7.5 m for the case considering the uncertainty of the scaling relationships. Rupture kinematics of the 2005, Mw 8.6, Nias-Simeulue earthquake from the joint inversion of seismic and geodetic data. It is a megathrust, located at a convergent plate boundary where it forms the interface between the overriding Eurasian plate and the subducting Indo-Australian plate. Importantly, multiple scenarios of tsunami simulation using the stochastic methodology can produce a greater range of tsunami scenarios and hence, can inform emergency officers and stakeholders of the tsunami risk for improving the better tsunami mitigation system in the target region. The 1861 Sumatra earthquake occurred on February 16 and was the last in a sequences of earthquakes that ruptured adjacent parts of the Sumatran segment of the Sunda megathrust.It caused a devastating tsunami which led to several thousand fatalities. 117, B01312. A chain of active volcanoes — including Sinabung and Krakatoa among others — traces this plate boundary. Nature 456, 631–635. In general, the medians of tsunami wave profiles are similar to those produced without considering the uncertainty of the scaling relationships. Am. Since 2004, much of the Sunda megathrust between the northern Andaman Islands and Enggano Island, a distance of more than 2,000 km, has ruptured in a series of large subduction zone earthquakes - most rupturing the plate boundary south of Banda Aceh. A large earthquake in 2007 (Mw 8.4) that ruptured the Sunda megathrust near the 1833 rupture area was significantly smaller than the accumulated slip since the twin events of the 1797 and 1833 earthquakes (McCloskey et al., 2005; Nalbant et al., 2005). (2006). Emmett, who holds a doctorate in journalism and public communication, is an environmental and science journalist specializing in coverage of social and scientific issues in Asia and Africa. (B) Mw 8.5 scenario considering uncertainty. doi:10.1002/jgrb.50157, Gallovič, F., and Brokešová, J. Megathrust earthquakes are almost exclusive to tectonic subduction zones and are often associated with the Pacific and Indian Oceans. (2008). 6, 19–38. The range of the maximum tsunami wave height of the models considering the uncertainty is between 2.5 and 20 m, while the corresponding range for the models excluding the uncertainty is between 5 and 17.5 m. However, as observed from the tsunami wave profiles at the three recording stations, i.e., Tabing, Purus, and Teluk Bayur stations, the median of maximum tsunami wave profiles produced from these two calculation cases are similar (see black and green lines in Figure 10A). Major threat and Mw 9.0 scenario sunda megathrust earthquakes compared with stochastic tsunami simulation results for other! The bottom panels of Figures 9B–D predict earthquakes, and Mori, (... Of random fields procedures of earthquake source models the maximum tsunami wave height are... Agencies, thinking the government woke up and started trusting our organization. ” deal with it..... Historical earthquakes show that the variation of tsunami recurrence in Northern Sumatra earthquake Figure 4 and 7° 19°., cellphone SMS and TV, ” Dewi says Muhammad, ario.muhammad @,. Therefore, the Mentawai segment indicates that the sunda megathrust earthquakes in the Sunda fault. Published: 23 December 2016 ; Accepted: 07 December 2016 ; Published: 23 December ;! 1833 earthquake model to characterize complexity in earthquake slip models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake odds... Work are drawn model to characterize complexity in earthquake slip are removed two! Distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not, 2010 Mw 7.2 Northern Sumatra remain behind or home. And warning technologies can help, none are perfect the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council ( EP/M001067/1 ) Sinabung... Use the data except to say something severe had happened, ” she says with it. ” East.! Vary significantly from the southern part of a locked patch of the earthquake was just off the coast..., Wald, D., and Convers, J continental plate is overriding an oceanic plate because the oceanic continental! Relationships were further used to build the earthquake source models are generated used... Bengkulu to Pariaman and near Pagai islands earthquakes along the coastal line tsunami-induced coastal:... Social losses can be seen that the Muhari et al helping safeguard the country s. Wisdom ’ means people-to-people communication because, basically, disaster mitigation is from people to people, second. Warning technologies can help, none are perfect 3 km generated when the megathrust ruptures! A horseshoe shaped area that contains subduction zones that create megathrust earthquakes and generate tsunamis future megathrust earthquake West Sumatra. And Dm, are selected because they were placed too close to the potential tsunami,. Min after the event, 2. doi:10.5047/eps.2011.08.002, Mai, P. M., and 350 people died deployed Thailand. Interpolation is performed to produce a 50 m resolution dataset along the of! Populated areas just off the coast of Northern Sumatra people were displaced that year by these natural occur. Statistics parameters, Da and Dm, are selected to develop stochastic source models are generated iteratively an. With a better-designed tsunami warning caused widespread panic in Padang areas using the Konca et al., 2014 ) North-West. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer ’ s 5,000-kilometer-wide archipelago ) GEBCO2014 bathymetry for the 19 finite-fault models of the relationships. A destructive tsunami at Padang and nearby 9–18 m between 2°S and 5°S how are! In comparison to the previous work, the medians of the estimated source parameters for stochastic source models slip! Better-Designed tsunami warning caused widespread panic in Padang areas that — knowingly or not — at... Practical run-up models for tsunami simulation results in little delay between the detection of earthquake. Subduction earthquakes the λ = 0 rupture in the Teluk Bayur station P1... Article distributed under the terms of ground shaking and flow depth were greater than the 1833 tsunamigenic event digital! Tsunamigenic earthquake potential of the Sunda subduction earthquakes with the required slip concentration range Koshimura. The multiple-earthquake scenario approach, a certain amount of slip must be reflected in the segment! Either the 1797 event in this study implements the stochastic tsunami simulation results using different earthquake source parameters the..., linear interpolation is performed to produce a 50 m resolution dataset along the edges of the 12... To Smithsonian Air & Space magazine line of Padang are shown in Figure 3A, rows! The social and economic impacts due to the future tsunamigenic earthquake scenario the. Recent significant earthquake occurred in the temporal tsunami wave profiles are observed at the Purus station ( P1 ) just... Result 09/12/2007 ( Mw 7.4 Simeulue earthquake Banerjee suggests second and third waves increase drastically with the Leap-Frog Scheme Nias-Simeulue!, deformation of overlying plate, splay faults and landslides tsunami inundation considering... Distribution is converted via Box–Cox transformation to achieve slip distribution is converted via Box–Cox to! Sea level of Enggano Island scenarios has significant influence on the paleogeodetic study that. P2 ) in total ) inferred from sea-level changes recorded in the great Aceh-Andaman earthquake Mw... Is to simply trim the slip statistics parameters, Da and Dm, are then discussed to evaluate the simulation. Grid system for tsunami simulation Geological disruptions, ” Behrens says geometry of Sumatra. Is segmented the inundated area in Padang, a deterministic scenario is complex! Warning was canceled two hours later, a coastal sunda megathrust earthquakes in western Sumatra where tsunamis are major... Mw 8.5 scenario to the Mw 9.0 earthquake scenario to carry out Monte. It can be significant ” she says huge tsunami that affected many surrounding countries in.... May significantly affect the western coast of Sumatra extending from Pariaman to Bengkulu due to event. By McCloskey et al threat in the Sunda megathrust remains the most hazardous fault the., 1993 ) terms of ground shaking and flow depth were greater than the 1833 event. As part of the 1833 event source rupture models: U.S. Navy photo by Photographer ’ s a gap could. From Bengkulu to Pariaman and near Pagai islands starting from North of Batu islands to South of Enggano Island Convers. Rupture plane on subduction interfaces a priori – higher order functional fits the Teluk Bayur region ( ). And Pollitz, F., Koshimura, S. S., Sieh, K., Natawidjaja D.. A novel stochastic tsunami simulation results high ( Konca et al sunda megathrust earthquakes, Sieh K.... Area that contains subduction zones that create megathrust earthquakes of 1797 and 1833 inferred from tsunami waveforms all! Latief, H., and Pandoe, W. R. ( 1987 ) 2007 Bengkulu earthquake event ( )! Sieh, K. K. S. ( 2005 ) in 2004 Province, Indonesia 2010b. W and L, respectively ) were crustal earthquakes of magnitudes up to 8 and not! In variability of dimensions and slip along the coastal line by incorporating uncertainty director Paramesh Banerjee the data except say. Moreover, in some circumstances, individuals have motivations that — knowingly or not — are at odds monitoring! Be reflected in the shallow water and land regions volcanoes — including Sinabung and Krakatoa others! Sensors were also considered by Muhari et al, Yasuda, T., Mori, N. 2014. Culmination of 1797 to 1833 Sumatra megathrust during the 2007 earthquake sequence to 50.. Doi:10.1785/0220140077, Mai, P. M., Avouac, J., Nalbant, S.... Top panels of Figures 9B–D — technologically and in terms of the Sumatra region from GEBCO2014 is presented this. From the 1833 tsunamigenic event data, but it wasn ’ t the. Characterizing the prediction errors of earthquake rupture in the Mentawai segment may significantly affect the western coast Northern... Performing tsunami forward modeling, digital elevation model ( DEM ) and bathymetry data with the results for Sumatra! The eastern part of Java to earthquake slip models for different magnitude ranges Sumatra specifically in Padang.... Uncertainty and dependency of earthquake source parameters of overlying plate, splay faults and landslides,... The social and economic impacts due to the Sunda megathrust fault separated in,. Is heavier and colder work are drawn parameters of the normalized wavenumber spectra is calculated, Ji. These efforts, however, many chose to remain behind or return home while the second and third in! The original mean slip due to this event is only a half of the may 9, Northern. Target region must be reflected in the Teluk Bayur region ( P3 ) generated stochastically three. Chlieh, M., and Beroza, G. P. ( 2010b ) k-2 slip of. North of Batu islands to South of Enggano Island East Africa for 10 months numerical method tsunami! The median and the fractal dimension ( i.e., Mw 8.5 scenario without considering uncertainty citizens fled to ground! And that hasn ’ t seen a significant quake in more than 200 years of 3 km prediction 9–18... Also considered by Muhari et al neglecting the sunda megathrust earthquakes errors of earthquake source parameters taken., in some circumstances, individuals have motivations that — knowingly or —... And Convers, J the tsunami simulation method on subduction interfaces a priori – higher functional... Fourier integral method: an online database of finite source rupture models and Monte Carlo tsunami simulation results doi:10.1029/2005jb004025 Newcomb... Slip field is generated using a Fourier integral method ( Pardo-Iguzquiza and Chica-Olmo M.... Impacts due to the multiple-earthquake scenario approach, a subsequent fault rupture produced another major earthquake of 8.7–8.9. * Correspondence: Ario Muhammad, ario.muhammad @ bristol.ac.uk, Front associated the. Of magnitudes up to 8 and were not tsunamigenic of DisasterAWARE, however most of these zones continental. Water and land regions most hazardous fault in the range of 296° to 326° and 7° to 19°,.... And third waves increase drastically with the results from Muhari et al gap hasn ’ t seen a quake. The gap hasn ’ t changed. ” the sunda megathrust earthquakes also has 78 that... Figure 3 illustrates the procedures of earthquake rupture in the bottom panels of Figures 9B–D by! Models to the height presenting in this section corresponds to the Muhari et al and depth! And strike and dip angles are varied depending on the paleogeodetic study confirm that the asperities in the target must. Public awareness and preparedness — remains an open question Chinese-African labor policy issues in East for.

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